Why is Ahmadinejad so confident?

Ahmadinejad feels pretty confident right about now. My timing was off, obviously, in my prediction in May that we’d be “in a state of declared war with Iran before much longer. I would guess it’ll happen before mid-summer, certainly.” Declaring war seems to be passé since WWII. And right now our ally is in it, not us. Yet. But I – and many, many other people who have been awake for the last few years and not burying their heads in a multi-culti sandpit – took him at his word, and he’s proved to be honest about his intentions, at least. He wants nukes, he wants war, he wants the global domination of Islam – and he’ll do what he can to make it happen.

I have to wonder why he’s so confident. Is it because nearly half our country seems to think that our own president is a greater threat than he is? That “Islamophobia” is a greater threat than radical Islamists? I’m sure those things do improve his confidence levels. Perhaps Ahmadinejad is so confident because he really does believe he’s going to destroy Israel and the 12th Imam will bring on the Global Caliphate. But perhaps he’s confident because he knows his plans will so disrupt the west that we can’t interfere with him. It makes sense to conclude that he’s got another card to play. We should expect another terrorist attack – or at least an attempt – soon. He’s been trying to get his pieces in place for some time:

It is undeniable that terrorists have entered the United States by crossing our land borders illegally. The empirical evidence of terrorist entry is significant. Several cases are now publicly known. For example, on January 15, 2004, Mahmoud Kourani was indicted in Dearborn, Michigan, for conspiring to provide material support to a terrorist organization (Hezbollah). He had entered the United States by bribing a Mexican official to provide him a visa to enter Mexico, and then paying a coyote to smuggle him across the border into the United States. Kourani came to the attention of the INS while living with other illegal aliens in Dearborn and was initially imprisoned on immigration charges. It was later learned that he had trained with Hezbollah in Iran and Lebanon and was raising money for Hezbollah in the United States.

[...] In addition to these specific cases, there are statistics suggesting that the number of terrorists crossing our southern border may be much higher than we think. In Fiscal Year 2005, the Border Patrol Apprehended 3,722 aliens from nations that are either designated state sponsors of terrorism or places in which Al Qaeda has operated.[3] We also know that for every one alien the Border Patrol apprehends, there may be three aliens who are not caught. If this is the case, then more than 10,000 aliens from high-risk, terrorist-associated countries illegally entered the United States in FY 2005. Obviously the majority of these aliens are not terrorists. But if only one in a thousand were, that would still be ten terrorists who successfully crossed our borders.(link)

It isn’t possible to know how many Hezbollah terrorists – and terrorists with other affiliations – have crossed our borders, and it isn’t possible to know how many Americans jihadis are living among us. We saw what 19 could do. The number of radical Islamists in Londonistan has grown. On July 26, 2005, Adrian Warnock posted that according to a Guardian article after the 7/7 bombings, only 5% of Muslims in Britain thought more attacks would be justified. He rightly pointed out that “Eighty thousand muslims who believe more attacks are justified is a major, major security concern.” Giving the benefit of the doubt and saying that only a tiny minority – 5% of that 5% – might be willing to actually act on that belief, I did the math: that’s 4,000 people who would be willing to attack the country they live in based on their religious beliefs.

What a difference a year makes! A July 4, 2006 Times Online article revealed that “13% of British Muslims think that the four men who carried out the London Tube and bus bombings of July 7, 2005, should be regarded as “martyrs”.” Believing that more attacks are justified, and believing that those who carry out attacks are martyrs are roughly equivalent. (If you are a martyr, it follows that your cause was just; otherwise you are referred to as a terrorist or a criminal.) From 5% to 13% in a year. 13% of 1.6 million Muslims is 208,000. Again, holding to the idea that only a tiny minority of 5% would act on those beliefs, 5% of 208,000 is 10,400.

The news is not all bad. From the same article “65% of British Muslims say that their community needs to do more to integrate properly with British society.” That is good news – but it doesn’t outweigh more than 10,000 potential terrorists in Britain alone. I haven’t seen studies equivalent to these in the United States, but I think it’s fair to assume the numbers would be roughly equivalent. And maybe that is why Ahmadinejad is so confident.

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  1. [...] [Added - Again, I don’t think the shooter, Naveed Afzal Haq, represents all Muslims. But I think he represents a lot more of them than we’d like to admit. Approximately 13% of Muslims (208,000) just in the UK thought the 7/7 bombers were martyrs. If only 5% of those Muslims were willing to act on that belief (that the bombers were martyrs and consequently the bombings were admirable and justified) that is 10,400 people. Just in the UK. I haven’t seen surveys like this in America, but I’d be willing to bet a lot of people in Dearborn, MI, for example, nodded approvingly when they heard about this shooter. [...]

  2. [...] Well, yeah. I’ve posted before (1, 2, 3) on the idea of the 5% of the 5% who are jacking around the rest of the planet. It may not be “right” or “fair” that of a billion or so peaceful Muslims, a tiny percentage are killing thousands, costing billions, and ruining the reputation of all. But it is not more right or fair that all of us in civilized society bear the burden for that tiny percentage. [...]