Pursuing Holiness

Over at Wizbang, Jayson Javitz notes that

Believe it or not the country has not gone into a recession.

As of March 31 there had not been a single quarter of negative real GDP growth, much less the two consecutive negative quarters that economic conventional wisdom holds is necessary to declare a recession. The economy grew at the same pace in Q1 of this year as it did in Q4 of last year. That growth rate was very muted — 0.6% — but, still, a gain is a gain. It’s likely the Q1 growth rate will be revised upwards. In Q2 and in Q3, 2007, the economy grew very strongly. Notwithstanding what you might have heard from Pravda-Media.

Remember just six short weeks ago when Pravda-Media had all those RECESSION!! headlines? Here’s what we have today. (So far…) And the first one is a classic:

Do I “feel better” that “technically” it’s not a recession? Why yes, thanks for asking. But Forbes giveth and Forbes taketh away - or tries to:

According to the BEA, the increase resulted from positive contributions of personal consumption expenditures for services, private inventory investment, exports of goods and services, and federal government spending. So technically, no recession so far. Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline are an indicator of recession. Although the BEA will further revise its first-quarter numbers at the end of May, it is likely to remain positive. But ultimately the technical distinction matters little: The news of the past months already tells the story.

Imagine if you hadn’t been scaring the heck out of people for six weeks encouraging them to batten down the hatches and prepare for the grapes of wrath they were about to undergo. Imagine if WSJ had stuck to the facts instead of trumpeting how economists feel. Beldar deconstructed the meme nicely six weeks ago, and added,

you can talk about “down-turns,” or you can talk about “not meeting expectations.” But if you use the word “recession” to mean something other than two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross national product, you’re misusing that word, and you’re a liar.

So why lie? … That’s also dirt simple: The word “recession” has come to have cosmic significance to voters in election season. The people who are lying to about whether we’re already “in a recession” are trying to ensure that a Democrat is elected in November.

USA Today, however, has their story and they’re sticking to it. Damn the actual facts and full speed ahead with how economists feel!

The U.S. economy is in recession, or soon to be in one, according to USA TODAY’s quarterly survey of leading economists. Two-thirds of the 52 economists polled said the U.S. economy is in recession. Add those who believe the economy will be in recession soon, and 79% believe that the economy will contract at some point in 2008. The good news: The recession will be short and shallow, and inflation will abate, say the 52 economists surveyed. In general, they expect the nation’s gross domestic product to shrink by half a percentage point in the second three months of the year. The survey comes in a key week for economic data.

Six week ago I posted Red Flag: Most X Say Y and absolutely nothing has changed:
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We all know the old joke about how to tell when a politician is telling a lie. His lips are moving. It’s a red flag, and we should be cautious.

Likewise, when the media uses the phrase, “most say” it’s a big red flag. Untruth ahead! Oh, it may be factually accurate that most X say Y, where X is a tiny sample of any group perceived to have authority on the topic and Y is what the media wants you to think. But let’s face it - the only reason the media is falling back on such a disingenuous trick is because they don’t have the facts on their side.

A prime example - “Most Economists Say Recession Has Arrived”

BeldarBlog does an excellent job of deconstructing the patent deceit of the Associated Press. Stashiu has more of the same.

The article is self-fisking, with plenty of contradictory information included for the careful reader to note.

The seventh paragraph, as Beldar mentions, comes right out and admits that the premise of the article is a lie - the current situation does not meet the definition of a recession.

Although the classic definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross domestic product, Mr. Stanley pointed out that the National Bureau of Economic Research, the nonpartisan organization that is the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end, doesn’t necessarily follow that definition. “If you go back to the 2001 recession, there was only one negative GDP quarter, and there might not even be one negative quarter in this recession,” he said.

Well, then. I guess the 2001 “recession” was a load of media-generated crap too.

Added: Does this mean I think all is sweetness and light, and that the economy is perfect? Uh, NO. It means that I believe words have meaning, and that people who manipulate those definitions should be called to account for it. I agree with Beldar - call it a downturn. Be as pessimistic as you like, everyone is, after all, entitled to their opinion. But not to their own facts.

written by Laura